Are we done yet?
Posted on May 4th, 2009 in Uncategorized | No Comments »
The data, as of this posting:
985 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection reported in 20 countries.
Confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza in Mexico: 590
Confirmed deaths in Mexico attributed to H1N1 infection: 25.
Confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza in US: 226.
Confirmed deaths in US attributed to H1N1 infection: 1.
Confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza in Canada: 85
Confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza in Spain: 40
The weekend, once gain produced new information, as well as new speculation about the course and prospects of an H1N1 epidemic.
The public health authorities in Mexico announced that the first wave of H1N1 infections may have peaked in that country, and a consensus is beginning to emerge suggesting that this strain may not be as virulent as first feared.
Both of these statements are driven by still developing facts on the ground, and they may be largely correct. Nevertheless, the conclusions that are been drawn from these and other developments– namely, that the concern about H1N1 was misguided, that the world has overreacted, and that influenza is old news– seem premature, if not downright foolish.
Public health authorities have to contend both with our (and the media’s) short attention span and the difficulties we have handling ambiguity and uncertainty (see the “Guarantees and Predictions” post). Coupled with our understandable desire to avert our attention away from unsettling events, many people are beginning to assume that this is all over. It is not. The reality is that the virus has now made its way around the world in a very short period of time, and the number of cases, both in the US and in the rest of the world, will likely continue to rise. This outbreak is by no means over, although the consequences of the outbreak may turn out to be somewhat less dire than first reports might have suggested.
That said, the safe practices being promoted should still be observed. An effective participatory democracy depends on an informed citizenry, and this outbreak is a perfect opportunity to educate ourselves about infectious disease in general, and influenza in particular. While this strain may fade for now, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where influenza season has come to a close, it may well reemerge in the next flu season, or gain a foothold in the Southern Hemisphere, where the flu season is only now beginning.
Flu seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere (US)
Flu seasonality, Southern Hemisphere (New South Wales, Australia)