How will Congress respond to Obama’s immigration reform?

A couple of weeks ago, Obama unveiled a plan for tackling immigration issues, to be implemented by Executive Order. This new plan would call for more resources to be allocated to law enforcement to help curb border crossing, make it easier for high-skilled and assimilated immigrants to stay, and help the illegal immigrants that are already in the United States become naturalized or safely deported. Many are critical of Obama’s aggressive actions and many are skeptical of whether he has the legal authority to actually implement this plan.

So, that begs the question: how will Congress respond to Obama unilaterally reforming how the government deals with the immigration crisis by creating pseudo-legislation?

Defunding Obama

There has been some speculation that Congress might try to stop the implementation of Obama’s new plan by altering the budget so that there is no longer funding that Obama can use to put his plan into action. This would possibly put Congress into another budget stalemate and create yet another government shutdown. However, there was a poll conducted that indicates that if the government were to shut down again, the public would widely and conclusively blame the Republicans in Congress for the shutdown. I believe that this means that the GOP will go to great lengths to avoid a government shutdown. Even with the risk of government shutdown, the possibility of stopping the plan by defunding it seems to still be considered.

Cancel the State of the Union

Although I only found this possibility in one article, I found it fascinating! Of course, the President needs to be invited to deliver the State of the Union so it seems possible to me that a belligerent, GOP-run Congress might make this symbolic gesture. The State of the Union is a great opportunity for the President to reach out and speak to a very wide audience at once, but with the media we have now, the President can have a very wide audience any time he goes on live TV. For example, when he gave this statement about immigration, I watched it live on YouTube and the view counter said there were upwards of 20,000 people watching that live just on YouTube. While I’m sure a well-planned and publicized speech like the State of the Union would have a larger audience, I believe it is no longer strictly necessary for the President to give one speech to Congress a year to sum everything up. Let’s face it, the State of the Union was a fun tradition but it was designed to be the yearly dose of politics printed in newspapers across the country. Now that we have constant media access, not inviting the President to the State of the Union would be a merely symbolic gesture, but a possibly strong and effective symbolic gesture.

Legislating

Who would have guessed? One of the ways that our legislative body could stop Obama’s new immigration plan would be to actually act as a legislative body and legislate on it. According to the Washington Post, the immigration statute under which Obama is operating was created by Congress and allots him quite a bit of authority over the issue of immigration. Since this statute was created by Congress, it could also be dismantled by Congress. Alternatively, Congress could live up to its long-time promise and actually pass laws that change how we deal with immigration in this country. Those laws would effectively replace the plan that Obama unveiled and leave them with the power to make their own plan. However, this would require Congress actually deciding on something, agreeing on something, and passing a potentially controversial law. With the way things are going, that doesn’t seem particularly likely to me.

Nothing

Then there is always the possibility that Congress will grumble and try to take action, but ultimately concede to Obama this time, saying they’ll tackle the issue after the next election. The perpetual campaigning in the United States leaves us with a Congress that is too often contented by inaction if it comes with the promise of reelection.

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The Algorithm of Gerrymandering

In a new study, published  by Duke University researchers Jonathan Mattingly and Christy Vaughn examined the results of the 2012 North Carolina Congressional race. In 2012, Republicans gained 9 out the 13 available seats.  Although Democratic candidates received the majority of the popular vote. Critics have accused the North Carolina General Assembly of gerrymandering or strategically defining electoral districts in an attempt to obtain political gain. The study”Redistricting and will of the People” explores a mathematical explanation for this apparent discrepancy in voting results. Researcher Jonathan Mattingly explains , “We wanted to ask ourselves, could we quantify, could we give some empirical force idea of what the right number of electoral officials were.”

Duke mathematician Jonathan Mattingly and Christy Vaughn.

Duke mathematician Jonathan Mattingly and Christy Vaughn.

They created a series of new congressional maps with a different borders based on the overall total votes of the 2012 election.

They followed these principals of redistricting:

1. A federal rule requires each district to have roughly the same population

2.  A state rule requires congressional districts be compact

Adhering to these guidelines and with the help of a algorithm researchers were able to NC_DistrictMapsredraw the 13 congressional districts. They produced 100 different possible outcomes, which concluded-that mathematically the outcome of 2012 congressional election-with four democrats elected- was not representative  of how people voted.  Democrats won an average of 7.6 out of the 13 house seats. 95% of the random simulations found Democrats won 6 out of the 9 house seats. 

Although, the results of the study support the idea of a discrepancy in votes in the election, experts such as law professor at Loyola University Jonathan Levitt warn, “in the real world, there are many other factions that go into drawing district lines.” This is true. Factors including minority voting rights and geography are factored into the drawing of congressional districts. In response to critics, Mattingly explains the focus their study was to be kept “simple” and “transparent”, however, in the future “it is possible to adjust minority representation.”

Vaughn and Mattingly hope their study might serve as kind of a diagnostic tool that can help determine the fairness of redistricting. They hope the results of their study encourage more state lawmakers to think about how to best shape their district lines.

It is obvious not only from public response, but also the mathematical evidence provided from this study that the 13 congressional districts in North Carolina were drawn to benefit a Republican victory. The constituents of North Carolina had fallen victim to gerrymandering, just as do many other across the United States.  Vaughn and Mattingly agree, “It wasn’t representative of the will of the people, and you ask yourself… is this democratic?”

 

 

 

 

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To Our Nation of Electoral Overreactors

For those eagerly speculating on how the 2014 midterms have affected the 2016 Presidential race, I am sorry to say that your speculation is nothing more than such. I agree, it is fun to take these wins and losses and try to make sense of them on a larger political scale, but to do this is ineffective, and blatantly a waste of time.

 

Remember this? The nation of electoral overreactors at their finest.

Remember this? The nation of electoral overreactors at their finest.

 

History has consistently revealed midterms to be unfavorable to the President’s party, but doesn’t divulge much in terms of the presidential election. We see below that Bill Clinton was able to recover after a Republican midterm sweep in 1994 to be reelected in 1996, Obama was able to recover over Romney in 2012 after major 2010 losses, and George H.W. Bush was able to be elected in 1988 after 1986 Democratic wins under Republican President Ronald Reagan.

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History isn’t the only thing on my side. The demographic turn out of voters in the 2014 midterms was overwhelmingly low, with a severe lack of voters who typically vote Democratic such as minorities, youths, and unmarried women.  This, no doubt, will make a big difference when these voters show up at the polls in 2016 to deliver a much-needed push to the Democratic nominee.

So if midterm data doesn’t matter so much, what does?

The economy. It’s the big indicator of who will be the next President of the United States. If the economy continues to improve under Barack Obama, the Democrat’s nominee will be able to ride the wave of economic success in hopes of reaching the White House. If the economy falters and the people feel the heat, Democrats will have to climb an almost insurmountable hill to even consider taking the White House in 2016.

Obama’s two terms. Because Obama has been in the White House for eight years, the people may want a new party to be in power, however this depends on the state of the nation and any changes that happen from now until the next election. If Obama remains unpopular and Republicans employ the correct rhetoric to cause a desire for change (sound familiar to Obama’s ’08 strategy, no?) then we may have another President Bush on our hands.

Party solidarity. It seems that Hillary Clinton is going to be the Democratic nominee as of now due to her party’s strong support. Democrats know that if they unite around a single candidate they can solidify the people’s support behind her as well, creating a huge force of popularity going into the general election. This leaves Republicans to decide who (of the MANY) will take the nomination. This upcoming race could get ugly, and the internal divides between moderate Republicans, such as Jeb Bush, and Far Right Republicans, such as Rick Perry, could create too many cracks in the Republican foundation.

 

Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, and Jeb Bush. All potential 2016 Republican nominees.

Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, and Jeb Bush. All potential 2016 Republican nominees.

So who will be the President in 2016? I cant answer that for you, and neither can the data from the 2014 midterms. However, we can still entertain ourselves wildly with speculation and find entertainment in the mayhem of presidential primaries. We wouldn’t have it any other way, for we a nation of electoral overreactors.

 

 

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Who could be in it to win it

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Hillary Clinton: Probably the strongest candidate to enter a primary. She is greatly popular amongst the Democrats and would be making history as the first woman president.

Gov Martin O’Malley: He was one of Hillary Clinton’s most durable supporters in 2008 and is perhaps the only Democrat yet to have shown an interest in challenging her. He has held some liberal positions and could draw votes from them to raise his profile. If Hillary does not run, it will give O’Malley a head start.

Senator Bernard Sanders:  Has said that he would either run as an independent or a Democrat. He would not be a threat to Hillary if she runs but the debate may lean towards economic fairness because of his stance in public office.

Former Gov. Jeb Bush: Perhaps the closest person the Republicans have to Hillary but there is no certainty of him running. His decision is to be based on its impact on his family. His stance on immigration and education does put him at odds with the party’s conservative wing and then there is also the question whether or not the Republicans want to nominate a third Bush.

Senator Ted Cruz: In less than 2 years he has established a national following. Has a robust network of small donors but would need to persuade the establishment wing to win the White House. His main support would be from the Tea Party activists and Christian conservatives.

Senator Marco Rubio: Came to prominence by the Tea Party and has leaned more towards party regulators. He will probably place himself such that he attracts the party’s conservatives and establishment wings. The problem that he will face is convincing donors that he has the decorum needed to be president and defending his role in the immigration policy overhaul.

Senator Rand Paul: Has a strong floor of support but the main question in his candidacy is if we can build a large enough coalition besides the libertarian-leaning supporters and small- dollar donors of his father. He would need to convince Republicans that he is mainstream enough to be the party’s standard-bearer.

Gov. Chris Christie: His candidacy depends on whether Jeb. Bush decides to run as they both appeal to a similar bloc of voters and donors. He won re-election last year with the support from minorities and appealing the Republicans on the basis of electability but there is the fiscal health of his own state-NJ credit rating has been downgraded quite often.

Gov. Scott Walker: Has already won 2 races for governor in the part four years. His battle with the organized labor gave him great national exposure and has an extensive fund- raising list but lacks charisma. He has also failed to expand his base, fix state budget problems, his job rate falls far behind national average and is the center of a long running criminal investigation

Gov. Bobby Jindal: He offers diversity to the party, has served 2 terms as governor in Congress and as a state and federal health official. He has made it clear that he wants to run but some believe that his candidacy is aimed at VP.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee: Winner of 2008 Iowa caucuses and has maintained a popular foothold amongst Christian conservatives. He faced issues with fund-raising in 2008, which could creep up again.

Gov. Rick Perry: Only a few Republicans have his executive experience but his faces greater challenges then his memorable “oops” debate moment. After leaving the governorship in January, he will not have the Texas fund- raising platform and he will likely face a home state challenge from Mr. Cruz.


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One prediction of the 2016 elections to read is Charlie Cook’s. He believes that Hillary only has a 25-30% chance of running though the midterm elections benefited her the most. He hasn’t given Bush much of a chance gaining the nomination saying, “Bush has two issues working against him to win the Republican primary for the 2016 presidential election. One is immigration reform, which he favors; and two, is his advocacy of education reform.” He expects the nominee to be either a tea party Senator or governor from the Midwest. Do you agree with him? Is the chance of Hillary running really low when she benefited the most from the midterm elections and has virtually no threat from any other potential Democratic candidates? And I guess Bush’s nomination depends greatly on Hillary running as he seems to be the Republicans best bet as a contender. Moreover, Rick Perry is already gearing up for the elections. Politico reports, “is inviting hundreds of prominent Republican donors and policy experts to a series of gatherings next month that are intended to rebuild his damaged national brand and lay the foundation for a potential 2016 presidential campaign.”

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Looking Ahead to 2016

In the aftermath of a Republican victory, one question seems inevitable: What does this mean for 2016? So far, there’s no real answer to that question–people are divided, with Republicans tending to claim a mandate and Democrats pretending that everything is fine. Back in October, Chris Christie confidently preached about the potential results of a Republican win:

“Would you rather have Rick Scott in Florida overseeing the voting mechanism, or Charlie Crist?” the New Jersey governor asked a Chamber of Commerce audience. “Would you rather have Scott Walker in Wisconsin overseeing the voting mechanism, or would you rather have Mary Burke? Who would you rather have in Ohio, John Kasich or Ed FitzGerald?”

The implications of this question are more than a little horrifying. Is Christie really advocating for even harsher, more restrictive voter laws? (The answer seems to be yes.) But the really scary part is that the election results are exactly what Christie wanted. All across the country, governors and secretaries of state were elected that plan to enact stricter voting laws–the sort of laws that are proven not to stop fraud, but to limit Democratic voting. Republicans have a new opportunity to continue voter suppression before the 2016 election.

Rick Scott, moments before his victory speech

On top of that, some are claiming that the midterms don’t bode well for the chances of Democratic presidential candidates, particularly Hillary Clinton. Senator Rand Paul spoke post-election on what this might mean for a Clinton candidacy:

“This was not only a repudiation of the president, but I think really a repudiation of Hillary Clinton,” Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, a potential Republican rival of the former secretary of state in the 2016 presidential race, said on CNN Wednesday morning. “Everybody thought, ‘Oh, hey, I’m going to be a Clinton Democrat.’ Turns out that’s not so popular in a lot of states either.”

U.S.News notes that out of the 10 candidates Clinton campaigned for, only 3 won. Of course there are other factors at play, and in many of these races, not even Clinton could save Democrats from inevitable defeat. Still, it’s hard not to look at these numbers and feel somewhat pessimistic about Democratic chances.

Not everyone is so negative, though. David Sirota at In These Times takes a different stance:

In fact, the 2014 election results appear to say more about who did not vote than who did: Younger voters and minority communities stayed home in large numbers, as is typical during a midterm election. If trends from the last two presidential elections hold, those same groups are likely to be far more energized during the next White House campaign, making Tuesday’s results of limited value in predicting 2016.

If anything, data from the midterms reveal that Republicans could face a steeper climb than usual in two years. Exit polls showed that Republicans actually got a smaller percentage of the female vote than they did in the 2010 midterms, even as many of their highest profile candidates tried to moderate their image on issues like abortion and contraception.

The conclusion seems to be that you really can’t make sweeping assumptions from midterms alone. Things might seem grim now, but it looks like we won’t have a real picture of the 2016 election until it gets a little closer.

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2016 Presidential Predictions

While 2014 may seem a bit early to determine which party candidates will run for election and which candidate will achieve the presidency, this hasn’t prevented speculation from political theorists and next-door neighbors alike.

Megan McArdle believes the GOP will win the 2016 presidential bid, asserting, “Mostly, the White House flips back and forth like a metronome…voters just get tired after eight years.”

 Glenn Beck, on the other hand, is convinced Hillary Clinton will clinch the presidency for the Democrats. The only confirmed candidate running in 2016 is Maryland’s Governor, Martin O’Malley.

It’s safe to say the recent midterm election results have only served to further fuel these rampant speculations. According to the New York Time’s Brendan Nyhan, “midterm results, which are typically unfavorable to the president’s party, tell us relatively little about the coming presidential election, as the accompanying chart illustrates.”

chart

 The 2014-midterm results have affected 2016 presidential bids; however, they probably haven’t determined the outcome of the 2016 race. Candidates who lose midterms will be dissuaded from running, while candidates who win can begin cultivating support for a presidential bid. For instance, John Kasich and Scott Walker are both considered strong (potential) conservative candidates because of their sweeping gubernatorial victories.

I believe, however, that Nyhan’s assertion is true, and come Election Day in 2016 it’s anybody’s game.

Posted in Abigail J. | Tagged , , , | 18 Comments

One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State

2014midterm

As predicted, November 4th brought about sweeping victories for the GOP. Senate Democrats lost 8 seats, leaving them with 44, Independents with 2, and Republicans achieving the Senate majority at 53 seats. While Republican triumph in both the Senate and Gubernatorial elections was foreseeable, the dismally low voter turnout was shocking to say the least.

A mere 36.4% of America’s eligible voter population participated in the 2014-midterm elections. “The last time voter turnout for a national election was as low as it was on Nov.4, Hitler was still in power, and Mitch McConnell was only nine months old.” Why was voter turnout so low? Erin Gloria Ryan of Jezebel attributes this phenomenon and the GOP’s “historic victories” to millennials, specifically the lack thereof. NBC statistics explain that while 37% of the midterm election voters were over 60, only 12% were under the age of 30. Ryan goes on to conclude that, “in 2008, young people showed up, and Democrats won.” Inversely stated, in 2014 old people showed up and Republicans won. Ryan’s conclusions still don’t explain why. Why don’t millennials show up to polls on voting day?

An in class discussion pointed to voter dissatisfaction; however, when I investigated the issue with friends and acquaintances, I found most of my peers had no idea about out of state voting or how to even begin to procure an absentee ballot. While this discovery is entirely unscientific, in the words of Ryan, “It’s not rocket science.” Make voting easier, and more people will do it.

Posted in Abigail J. | Tagged , , | 18 Comments

The Overachievers

The recent 2014 midterm elections sparked little interest as the national average voter turnout was at it’s lowest in the past five decades with only a third of eligible voters casting a ballot. This low voter turnout reflects the growing distrust and indifference towards politics permeating the minds of Americans throughout the country. Whilst voter turnout hit all-time lows in some states, Maine, Wisconsin, Colorado, Alaska, Minnesota and Oregon shined through with voter turnouts exceeding 50 percent. These states seem to hold an overachieving electorate as they have been amongst the top-performing states in the past decade.

Map of Voter Turnout

Map of Voter Turnout

In Oregon, the high voter turnout can be attributed to the state’s century-old civic duty tradition dating back to the Progressive Era. Furthermore, in almost all of the aforementioned states, convenient voting measures help mobilize voters. For instance, Oregon and Colorado exclusively hold elections by mail. The ballots are sent to registered voters three weeks ahead giving voters more than enough time to make their choices in the comfort of their home. Other convenient voting measures include voter registration on Election Day, which is found in Maine, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. It is proven that making it easier for residents to cast a vote equates a higher voter turnout as seen in these top performing states. Another factor that may motivate people to vote is a contentious race or ballot issue. Regarding contentious races, Wisconsin, a battleground state in presidential elections, had a number of contested campaigns following governor Scott Walker’s effort to diminish the bargaining rights of public employee unions. Also in the same regards, Maine’s high voter turnout can be connected to the highly disputed races for governor and the House. Concerning ballot issues, both Oregon and Alaska attracted many voters with the divisive ballot question regarding the legalization of recreational marijuana, which passed in both states. In Maine, the ballot issue to ban the use of dogs, bait and traps to hunt bears attracted a number of voters to vote against it. Overall, the enthusiasm of voters in these states can be accredited to the convenient voting process and contentious ballot issues. Other states should take a hint when it comes to simplifying their voting process in order to mobilize their voters.

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Here She is… Ms. America!

Who would have thought that we would live to an age where two women would be legitimate and likely candidates for the title of President of the United States?

Today, with the 2016 presidential race just around the corner voters everywhere are faced with the decision of who they will support in primaries, who they will give money to, who they will chat about at the water fountain, and ultimately, who will receive their vote in November two years from now. For the first time the American Democrats have the option of choosing between two women, whether or not either of them will run however is a different matter.

As of right now, Elizabeth Warren has made it clear that she is not running for office. However, it’s not like she’s the first person to make such a claim. Before running in 2008 even Barack Obama claimed to have no intention for claiming the presidential nomination, and yet, here we are. Clinton of course has always been a party favorite among Democrats and though she has yet to make any official announcements regarding her run, it is highly likely that she will following her 2008 attempt.

However, seeing as both women are fairly liberal Democrats, voters must decide how they will stack up against one another and who ultimately should be the party nominee. However, before the real action can begin, there is the added hurdle of gender. Though it is often hard to see beyond our little bubble in Northampton where the town population is overwhelmingly female (I feel for the poor y chromosome holders and  other men out there) it seems that for much of the rest of the U.S. having two women run in the same party. After all, one woman is already ridiculous right?

According to an article by The Hill the public is currently struggling with such a concept. As of yet, it seems women strongly support both candidates, claiming that “we always have several men running at the same time. The more women who run for public office, the better.” This sentiment expresses the commonly held struggle for women in politics. It’s hard to jump into the boys’ club, ad hopefully by having both Clinton and Warren running together, more women will be able to envision themslves doing just the same thing. As stated in the article, “more women need to run against each other in all races to show it’s not a big deal.” The more women who run, the more selection the American populace has at choosing the ideal candidate. 

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A Well Predicted Horse Race: The 2014 Senate Midterm Elections

So, the Republicans won the majority in the United States Senate–and everyone predicted it.

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Though it was unclear as to exactly in which states Democrats would lose seats to Republicans, before the midterm elections even occurred, the Washington Post Election Lab predicted a 96% probability that the Republicans would gain the Senate majority. Not surprisingly, Mitch McConnell held onto his Kentucky Senate seat and is now poised to become the Senate Majority Leader.

The question, now, is how the Senate Republicans will handle their newly gained majority. After all, in 2016, Senate Republicans will be defending 24 seats, while Democrats will only be defending 10. This is already a cause for anxiety in many Republicans; in fact, Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado has already urged his fellow Republicans to act with “maturity” and “competence”. Senators like Gardner know that voters get fed up quickly with gridlock in Congress and have a particularly unfavorable opinion of the current Congress. Indeed, if Republicans prove that they cannot make connections with Democrats across the aisle in the next two years and fail to show efficiency in passing legislation, the Democrats could easily win back the majority in 2016.

The Republicans hold a narrow majority currently, with only 53 seats in the Senate.  They know that they are skating on thin ice. This could, potentially, bring out a positive change in legislative actions in the next two years. While Republicans could use their majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate to combat President Obama’s policies for the next two years and perpetuate the political gridlock the country has been experiencing for most of Obama’s presidency, they know this would jeopardize their chance at retaining the Senate Majority in 2016. This fear could be just enough to motivate Republican Senators to compromise with Democrats and work harder to create better bipartisan policies that will benefit the American people.

Photo from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/11/07/why-republicans-senate-majority-could-be-very-short-lived/

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